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An individual made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Nicolás Maduro just before it was made public, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from non-public details of American actions.

Changing Odds in Predictions

Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be no longer in control by the close of the month surged in the hours before former President Trump declared on Saturday that Maduro had been apprehended.

A particular user, which registered on the site last month and made four bets, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $nearly half a million from a initial bet of $32,537.

Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.

Odds Fluctuate Before Public Statement

Platform data shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.

But the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in betting activity just before the official statement was made.

"This specific wager has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," said a financial reform advocate.

Several of other individuals also made large payouts from predicting the capture.

Political Attention Intensifies

Elected officials are beginning to pay attention.

Proposed legislation introduced on the start of the week seeks to ban public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market.

Market Background

Event-driven betting sites have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to political events.

The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency.

Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the prediction market industry.

A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."